Official Government Data Confirms that, Since 1998, the US is Cooling at a Rate of 9.6 deg F/Century!

Posted: February 8, 2011 in Global Cooling, global warming fraud, global warming hoax
Tags: , ,


Each month, as new data is compiled and released by the National Climatic Data Center I add it to the data set since 1998.  It is well known that globally, temperatures have leveled off or even slightly cooled since 1998 (or 1995 as reported by some).  The United States has the most comprehensive set of surface temperature sensors and the data is freely available so I track this data to compare it to what the data manipulators at NASA are saying about global temperatures.  The graph below shows the trend for the past 13 years in the contiguous United States.  The cooling trend is now the steepest it has been.   Through January, the cooling trend is -0.96 deg. F per decade or -9.6 deg F per century.  This is just the current trend and at some point it is bound to go up but at this point it looks like an investment in fur futures would be wise.

The important point to this trend is that it is completely at odds with everything the IPCC predicted in each of their past summary assessment reports.  We were supposed to be seeing an exponential rise in global temperatures.  If they couldn’t get 15 years into the future correct, by what extension of logic should we be concerned about the validity of their other, longer-term, computer projections?

Most Recent 12-Month Period (Feb. Jan.) 1998-2011

Average = 54.09 deg. F

Trend = – 0.96 deg. F/ Decade (- 9.6 deg. F/century)



Even as the concentration of carbon dioxide continues to rise, global temperatures have not kept pace. For the contiguous United States, temperatures are in free-fall.


Jim Hatem

  1. A Gardner says:

    Are you sure you have your temperature conversion maths correct

  2. jesuit01 says:

    You are correct. I have been following this trend for several months now and it shows no signs of abating. Something is going on! I understand that 13 years is not a long time but it is significant, I think.

  3. kenneth_O says:

    So how come news like this isn’t reported on MSNBC or CNN?


  4. ryan says:

    If you consider the UHI effect then this trend is even steeper. Nice work.

  5. sensei says:

    Well of course. We all know that global warming is causing all this cooling.

  6. lausd_teacher says:

    Hatem, you are something else! I think you have finally convinced me of the errors of my ways.

  7. Aaron says:

    Could you provide a link to your XLS file?

  8. chili palmer says:

    I’d like to share your chart, but I need an actual number from the NCDC, Otherwise I will be laughed at. I’ve spent awhile looking through the NCDC site and find nothing usable. I find numerous “rank” charts, one from the year ending Jan 2011 claiming the US temp was “above normal.” You say the NCDC provides numbers from which you construct your chart, could you please tell me where? Thanks.

  9. chili palmer says:

    Thanks very much, peddler. chili palmer

  10. Harold Pierce Jr says:

    Do the following:

    1. Round all numbers the nearest whole degree.

    2. Compute the mean and round to the nearest whole degree.

    3. Compute the classical average deviaton from the mean and round to the nearest whole degree.

    I get 54 +/ 1 deg F

    In the USA , temperatures at weather stations are not measured to 0.1 deg F. In Canada temperature are measured and reported to the nearest half of a degree C (ca 1 deg F)

    My conclusion: Constant mean temperature with no trend. The classical average deviation is an estimated of “weather noise.”

    • I don’t necessarily disagree with most of what you are saying. However, this is the data as reported by NOAA and I am only working with THAT data. Rounded to the nearest deg F, one could argue that there has been no global temperature change since records began–and maybe that is true.

  11. c'monnow says:

    I know how statistics can be manipulated but this 13 year trend does seem to mean SOMETHING. Thanks for publishing this.

  12. moeimer says:

    This comes as no surprise to me. I am glad you are updating this every month.

  13. Ricky2 says:

    It is nice to have empirical evidence like this to confirm what I have been suspecting.

  14. notthesituation says:

    Thanks for posting this. I can’t wait to share!

  15. steve-o says:

    It is important to rememeber that this cooling is in spite of the bad placement of thermometers. I suspect the cooling is really even deeper.

  16. FBG says:

    And we have had only 3 years of low solar activity so far.
    When solar activity goes back to what it was in the XIX century all GW will disappear as by “magic”, or so will think the IPCC “experts”.

  17. James says:

    Hatem, just FYI, you can’t link to scripts (e.g. any page that ends with “.pl”) because it won’t save your input. Everyone else, here’s the website where you can tinker with the parameters to reproduce the above graph:

  18. Peter Condon says:

    Very Interesting.

    I have been using the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) web site in Australia to check on temperature trends around Australia and have found that there has not been any increase in the Annual Mean Max Temperature at various locations around Australia over the last 70 years. At one location in the middle of the continent, Oodnadatta, the temperature in 2010 was two degrees cooler than in 2009. At another, Norfolk Island, in the middle of the Tasman Sea, the temps are at 1940s levels.

    Will Al Gore make money out of this sham?

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