One month ago I wrote an essay here predicting that the media would soon be touting 2010 as the warmest year on record. Warm temperatures at the beginning of the year were looked upon with childish glee by certain elements of the global warming community but alas, nature has a way of messing up a party. The higher temperatures have not continued and in fact some of the coldest temperatures recorded in a hundred years have occurred this winter (our summer) in the southern hemisphere, balancing out the above average temperatures in parts of the north. Of course, a single year means nothing in the grand scheme of things so no single year should ever be used as a harbinger of future trends.
However, reports that global temperatures have been flat or declining for the past 12-15 years are becoming increasingly embarrassing to the doom and gloom global warming activists. I have no access to raw (or even modified) temperature data for the globe so I am going to take the word of IPCC authors that indeed global temperatures are behaving badly—that is, they are not increasing at the unprecedented rate that was predicted by their computer models.
Unlike global temperature data, data for the U.S. is readily available and last month I used official government temperature data to show that up through September 2010, temperatures in the U.S. were declining at a rate of 8.8 deg F / Century. A couple of days ago, the government updated their data set with temperatures through the month of October. I ran the same analysis on the data for the period since the great El Nino event of 1998 and lo and behold, there is no change. The trend line is still the same. The U.S. is cooling! Of course this is just the current trend and only a climate fool would suggest that a warming one not follow one day.
So the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) people keep watching the concentration of CO2 rise in the atmosphere and keep expecting the temperatures to do likewise but somehow, nature is just not cooperating. This cooling trend was never predicted in any of the IPCC climate models. In fact, exponential rises in temperature were predicted in every single one of their past reports. This begs the question; if their computer models were incapable of predicting an immediate 12 year cooling trend then how much faith should we have in those same models predicting catastrophic high temperatures over the next century? Should we be committing TRILLIONS of dollars to a problem that no empirical evidence suggest actually exist?
Continental U.S. Temperature Cooling
Most Recebt 12-Month Period (Nov.-Oct.) 1998 – 2010 Trend = -0.88 deg F / decade (-8.8 deg F / century)
Each red line in the graph represents a 12 month period ending in October of the related year. The black horizontal line represents the average temperature over this time period. The green line is the statistical trend. Please be aware that atrend is not a prediction–this trend can and will change. Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html