“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
– Kevin Trenberth, Lead Author IPCC (2001, 2007)–From the hacked emails of the East Anglia Climate Research Center
The headlines are on the way. You can bet that come the end of the year the media will be touting 2010 as one of the warmest years on record. Of course, the implication will be that it is a sign of global warming. We are all going to die! Relax. In the big scheme of things, one single year means nothing.
I am not very confident in temperature measurements coming from other parts of the globe and I certainly don’t have access to the raw data so I am not equipped to comment on such data. However, US temperature data is abundant, more reliable and freely accessible. I say “more reliable” with a certain degree of hesitation because it is artificially skewed to the warm side—but that will be the subject of another essay. Anyway, I took data directly from the NOAA archives , ending with the most recent 12 months (Oct. 2009-Sept.2010) for the period from 1998 to the present in 12 month blocks. I chose 1998 because that year is often touted as the warmest year on record (it was not). Word has been circulating that global warming all but ceased since that year and what I discovered seems to confirm the cooling trend.
For the U. S., temperatures since 1998 have been in a downward trend. It is cooling at the rate of 8.8 deg F per century! Of course this is just the current trend. Only a climate fool would suggest that a warming one will not follow some day. The point is that over this 12 year time span there has been no warming within the US. In fact, the opposite is true. What makes this important is that none of the IPCC climate models predicted this. It was not predicted in their 1997 report, their 2001 report, or even acknowledged in their 2007 report.
The leaked emails from East Anglia last year suggest that the climate modelers are in agreement about global conditions being very similar to what we are seeing in the US. This is all very embarrassing for the AGW people who would love the last 12 years to fit nicely into their exponential graph. It is funny how empirical data can mess up a hypothesis.
Continental U.S. Temperatures Cooling
Most Recent 12-Month Period (Oct – Sep) 1998 – 2010 Trend = -0.88 deg F / decade (-8.8 deg F / century)
Each red line in the graph represents a 12 month period ending in September of the related year. The black horizontal line represents the average temperature over this time period. The green line is the statistical trend. Please be aware that a trend is not a prediction—this trend can and will change. Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html